Mehangai ke dabao ko kam karne par State Bank ne policy rate ko 19.5% tak kam kar diya

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) ne Peer ko sood ki sharah ko 20.5% se kam kar ke 19.5% kar diya, jo ke mehangai aur market ki tawaqqaat ko kam karne ke jawab mein lagataar doosri kami hai.

Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) ke ijlaas ke baad aik press conference se khitab karte hue, State Bank ke Governor Jameel Ahmad ne kaha, “Humne note kiya hai ke afraat-e-zar mein kami ka rujhan hai.”

State Bank ke Governor ne kaha, “Mehangai ki sharah 38% se kam ho kar 12.60% par aa gayi hai jabke bairooni khatton mein musalsal behtari aayi hai,” Governor ne mazeed kaha, “Sood ki sharah mein kami mojooda maashi raftaar par hamare aitmad ki aks hai.”

Pichlay maheenay, SBP ki MPC ne apni benchmark sood ki sharah ko 150 bps se 20.5% tak kam kar diya, jo ke taqreeban aik saal se barqarar rehnay walay record 22% ke baad hai.

Finance Czar ne mazeed kaha ke “Mustaqbil ke takhmeenay ye tawaqqa kartay hain ke afraat-e-zar ki average sharah 23% aur 25% ke darmiyan mustahkam rahegi, jo ke pichlay saal ke 23.4% ke baad hai.”

Markazi Bank ne aik bayan mein kaha ke maaliati narmi ke ailaan ne afraat-e-zar mein mamooli kami, qarz ki adaigi ke bawajood State Bank ke zarma-badal ke zakhair mein izafa, aur staff-level ke muahiday ka hawala detay hue qaumi maeeshat ke liye positive isharay zahir kiye hain. Yeh muahida International Monetary Fund (IMF) ke taqreeban $7.0 billion ke 37 maheenay ke Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program ke liye hai.

Is mein mazeed kaha gaya ke committee ne andaza lagaya ke bairooni khata mein musalsal behtari aayi hai, jaisa ke qarzon aur dosri zimmedariyon ki khatir khwah adaigi ke bawajood markazi bank ke FX zakhair mein izafa se zahir hota hai.

Taraqqi – numayan tor par positive real interest rate ke sath – Mehangai ke dabao ko qaboo mein rakhte hue maeeshi sar-garmiyon ko support karne ke liye calibrated andaaz mein policy rate mein mazeed kami ka sabab bani.

Apni aakhri meeting ke baad se, committee ne aham taraqqi ko note kiya ke mali saal 24 mein current account khisara tezi se kam hua aur SBP ke FX ke zakhair June 2023 ke akhir mein $4.4 billion se barh kar $9.0 billion se ooper ho gaye.

Bayan mein kaha gaya ke July mein kiye gaye jazbati survey ne afraat-e-zar ki tawaqqat aur consumer aur business dono ke aitmaad mein bigar dikhaya.

Is mein mazeed kaha gaya ke haali hafton mein tel ki beiruni keematain utar chadhav ka shikar rahi hain, jabke dhatoon aur khanay pine ki ashya ki keematain kam hui hain.

Aakhir kar, afraat-e-zar ke dabao aur labor market ke halaat mein asani ke sath, taraqqi yafta maeeshaton mein markazi bankon ne bhi apni policy sharaon mein kami karna shuru kar di hai.

Pesh raft ka jaiza lete hue, MPC ne andaza lagaya ke aaj ke faislay ke bawajood, zari policy ka mawqif 5% – 7% ke darmiyani muddat ke hadaf ki taraf afraat-e-zar ki rehnumai ke liye kafi sakht hai.

Is mein mazeed kaha gaya ke yeh tashkees hadaf shuda maali stability ke hadood, mansoba band baairooni ruko’m ke bar waqt idraak aur saakhtari islaahat ke zariye maeeshat mein bunyadi kamzoriyaan door karne par bhi munhasir hai.

1. Haqeeqi Shoba

Taza tareen aala frequency ishaaray motadil maeeshi sargarmi ki aks karte rehte hain. June mein mah baha mah ki buniyad par auto aur POL (FO ko chor kar) ki farokht aur khad ki khareed mein izafa hua. May 2024 mein bara peymanay par manufacturing mein bhi tezi se behtari record ki gayi, jo buniyadi tor par libas ke shoba ke zariye darkar thi.

Maali saal 24 mein mazboot kar kardaagi dikhane ke baad zarayi shoba ki taraqqi is maali saal mein sust rehne ki tawaqqa hai. Taza tareen satellite images aur khareef ki faslon ke liye input halaat bhi is tashkees ki himayat karte hain.

Taham, tawaqqa ki jati hai ke san’at aur services ke shobon mein sargarmiyan bahal hongi, jis ki himayat nisbatan kam sood ki shara aur zyada budget wale taraqqiyati kharchon se hogi. Is buniyad par, MPC ne FY25 ki haqeeqi GDP numo ka takhmeena 2.5% se 3.5% ke had mein lagaya jo ke guzishta saal record ki gayi 2.4% thi.

2. Bairooni Shoba

Musalsal teen maheenon tak surplus record karne ke baad, current account ne May aur June mein MPC ki tawaqqat ke mutabiq khisara post kiya. Record shuda khisaray zyada tar dividend aur munafa ki adaigiyon aur daramadat mein mausmi izafay ki wajah se thay, jo baraamadat aur karkunon ki tarseelaat mein numayan izafay ko pura karne se zyada thay.

Majmooi tor par, maali saal 24 mein current account khisara guzishta saal ke 1.0 percent se numayan tor par kam hokar GDP ke 0.2 percent par aa gaya. Is ne, maaliyati aamdani ke ihya ke sath, SBP ke FX zakhair ko banane mein madad di.

Agay dekhte hue, MPC ko tawaqqa hai ke daramadat mein mamooli izafa hoga, taraqqi ke nuqtay nazar ke mutabiq.

Is ke sath sath, baraamadat mein izafa aur karkunon ki tarseelaat mein musalsal mazboot numo, maali saal 25 mein GDP ke 0 – 1.0% ki had mein current account khisara mein shamil rehne ki tawaqqa hai.

Committee ne andaza lagaya ke mutawaqqa maaliyati bahao, ba-shumul IMF program ke tehat mansoba band sarkari bahao, is current account khisaray ko finance karne aur FX buffers ko mazeed mazboot karne mein madad karega.

3. Maliyati Shoba

Hukoomat ke nazar-sani shuda takhmeenay maali saal 24 ke doran maaliyati tawazun mein behtari ki nishandahi karte hain, kyun ke buniyadi tawazun surplus mein tabdeel ho gaya aur majmooi khisara guzishta saal se kam hua. Tahum, budget mein baironi aur ghair bank financing mein kami ke darmiyan, mulki banking system par hukoomat ka inhsaar numayan tor par barh gaya.

Committee ne khasara ki maali aanaat ke liye banks par barhte hue inhsaar par tashweesh ka izhaar kiya, jo ke niji shoba ke liye qarz lene ki jagah ko nichor rahay hain.

Maali saal 25 ke liye, hukoomat ne buniyadi surplus ka hadaf GDP ka 2.0% muqarrar kiya hai.

MPC ne majmooi macroeconomic stability ko support karne aur mustaqbil ke maeeshi jhatkon se nimatne ke liye mulk ke liye maaliyati aur baironi buffers ki tameer ke liye mutawaqqa maali stability aur mansoba band baironi ruko’m ke bar waqt hadood par zor diya.

4. Paisa Aur Credit

Committee ne note kiya ke maali saal 24 ke doran monetary aggregates ke rujhanat aur saakht sakht monetary policy ke mawqif se ham aahng rahe.

Broad money (M2) aur reserve money mein bal-tarteeb 16.0% aur 2.6% izafa hua, jo ke baraai naam GDP mein numo se bohat kam hai. M2 mein taqreeban poori taraqqi ki rehnumai bank deposits ne ki, jab ke gardish mein currency taqreeban guzishta saal ki satah par hi rahi.

Natija tann, currency se jama ka nisbat behtar hua, kyun ke yeh June 2023 ke aakhir mein 41.1% se gir kar June 2024 ke aakhir mein 33.6% tak aa gaya.

Isi waqt, baironi khatoon mein behtari ne maaliyati tosee mein khalis gair mulki asasaon ki shirakat mein izafa kiya.

Darmiyan, niji shoba ke qarzay ki kam demand ke darmiyan banking nizaam ke khalis gharelo asasaon mein izafa kam hua. Bayan mein kaha gaya ke committee ne in pesh rafton ko afraat-e-zar ke nuqtay nazar se sazgar qarar diya.

5. Afraat-e-Zar Ka Manzar

Jaisa ke tawaqqa ki gayi thi, June 2024 mein headline afraat-e-zar saal ba saal ki buniyad par barh kar 12.6% ho gayi jo May mein 11.8% thi. Yeh izafa buniyadi tor par bijli ke buland nirkhon aur Eid se mutaliq qeematon mein izafay ki wajah se hua, jo ke juzzan gharelo eendhan ki qeematon mein kami ki wajah se pura hua.

Darmiyan, buniyadi afraat-e-zar guzishta do maheenon mein taqreeban 14% tak mustahkam raha hai.

MPC ne andaza lagaya ke halan ke maali saal 25 ke budget ka afraat-e-zar ka asar barri had tak tawaqqaat ke mutabiq hai, dastiyab maloomat is baat ki nishandahi karti hai ke in iqdamat ke mukammal asraat ko maqami qeematon mein mukammal tor par zahir hone mein kuch waqt lag sakta hai.

Iske sath sath, committee ne maaliyati giraawat aur energy ki qeematon mein adjustment se mutaliq ad-hoc faislon se mehngai ke nuqtay nazar ko lahiq khatrat ko note kiya.

Tawazun ke lehaz se, in rujhanat par ghoro fikar ke baad – aur kaafi sakht monetary policy ke mawqif aur jaari maaliyati stability ke hisaab se – maali saal 25 mein average afraat-e-zar 11.5 – 13.5% ki had mein rehne ki tawaqqa hai, jo ke maali saal 24 mein 23.4% se numayan tor par kam hai.