Pakistan ko maali saal 25 mein kitna bairooni qarz ada karna hoga?
Budh ko jari karda State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) ke aadaad o shumaar se zahir hota hai ke Pakistan ko rawan maali saal ke doran bairooni qarzon ki mad mein $24.8 billion ki adaigi ki zaroorat hai.
Yeh tawaqquh ki jaati hai ke ghair mulki fund ki behtar aamad aur i’tidaal pasand current account khisara ki wajah se yeh zimmedariyan aram se aur waqt par ada ki jaengi.
State Bank ne Maali Saal 2025 ke liye beyn ul aqwami zakhair aur ghair mulki currency ki liquidity ke hawale se data jari kiya hai, jis se zahir hota hai ke Pakistan ko July mein $4.98 billion, August aur September mein $2 billion, aur October se June tak $17.8 billion ki zaroorat hogi, jis se kul raqam $24.8 billion ho jaye gi. Yeh raqam puray FY25 ke liye Pakistan ki bairooni adaigi ki zimmedariyon ko fund karne ke liye darkaar hogi.
Kul $24.8 billion mein se $21.2 billion asal adaigi hai aur $3.6 billion sood ki adaigi hai.
Maali Saal 25 ke liye darkaar bairooni adaigiyon ki kul raqam $26.2 billion se thodi kam hai, jis ka hawala State Bank ke Governor Jameel Ahmad ne Peer ko monetary policy ijtima ke baad media aur tajziya kaaron ki briefing ke doran diya.
Majmooi maaliati zarooraton ke lehaaz se, Governor ne bataya ke kul $4 billion sood ki mad mein hai, aur $22 billion asal adaigi ke liye hai.
Is $22 billion mein se, $16.3 billion ki wapsi mutawaqqa hai, jis se $10 billion ki adaigi baqi reh jaati hai. Is raqam mein se, $1.1 billion July mein ada kiye gaye, jis ke nateeje mein is maali saal ke pehle 11 mah ke liye $9 billion ki khales adaigi hui.
State Bank ka takhmeena hai ke iske zarmadadla ke zakhair Maali Saal 25 ke akhir tak $13 billion tak pohnch jaye ge, jo ke mojooda $9.1 billion se zyada hai. State Bank ka yeh bhi maan’na hai ke in zakhair ka mayar peechle saalon ke muqablay mein behtar hai.
“Yeh note karna zaroori hai ke August aur September 2024 mein wajib ul ada raqam saal mein kul zimmedariyon (SBP ke aadaad o shumaar ke mutabiq) ka sirf 8.0% lagti hai,” Topline Securities ne aik note mein kaha.
Iss ke nateejay mein, hamein yaqeen hai ke August ke akhir mein mutawaqqa IMF ki manzoori ke sath, FX ke zakhair August/September 2024 mein pichlay chaar maheenon mein $9 billion ki jamoood ki satah se behtar honge.
Pakistan mein guzishta dhai maah ke doran $500 million se zyada ki aamad hui hai. Topline Securities ke CEO Muhammad Sohail ne kaha ke ghair mulki currency ke sath zyada pedaawar wale Pakistan T-Bills mein sarmaaya kaari karne wale taweel muddat IMF program ke sath mustahkam rahenge.
Sohail ne mazeed kaha, “Is ki wajah se markazi bank ne benchmark sood ki shara ko 19.5% par rakha hai jab ke unka afraat e zar ka taqmeena 11.5-13.5% hai.”
SBP ki jaanib se taza tareen bairooni adaigiyon ka data is waqt samne aaya hai jab aalami darja bandi agency S&P ne Pakistan ki taweel muddat sovereign rating ki ‘CCC+’ ke tor par tasdeeq ki hai. Is ki wajah aik taweel maashi buhran ke darmiyan mulk ka apni qarz ki zimmedariyon ko pura karne ke liye bairooni madad par inhisaar karna tha.
Naye International Monetary Fund (IMF) muahiday ke tehat bairooni funding ki zyada dastiyabi ki wajah se, Fitch ne Peer ko Pakistan ki taweel muddat ghair mulki currency jaari karne wale default rating ko ‘CCC+’ mein upgrade kar diya tha.
July ke shuru mein, Pakistan ne maeeshat ko mustahkam karne ke liye IMF ke sath $7 billion ka bailout deal hasil kiya, kyun ke mulk sovereign default ke dehane par tha.
Pakistan IMF program ke tehat majmooi maaliati zarooriyat ko pura karne ke liye Saudi Arab, United Arab Emirates, aur China ke sath guftagu kar raha hai.
State Bank ke Governor ke mutabiq, Pakistan ki bairooni position mein numayan behtari aayi hai, current account khisara kam hone, zakhair mein izafa (qarzay ke zakhair ke tor par nahi balki FX market operations ke zariye banaya gaya), aur State Bank ki forward liability book mein kami waqiya hui hai.
Qaleel muddat qarzay ka aik aham hissa, khaaskar $8 billion tijarti qarzon ki adaigi ki gayi hai aur ise taweel muddat kay multi-lateral qarzon se badal diya gaya hai. Nateejaatan, is waqt qarz ki paidariyat ke bare mein koi khaas tashweesh nahi hai.
State Bank ne Maali Saal 2025 ke liye current account khisaray ki paish goyi ki hai. Paish goyi mein dakhilaat mein mamooli izafa, workers ki remittances mein mazboot numa, aur majmooi mulki pedaawar (GDP) ke 0-1% ke darmiyan mutawaqqa current account khisaray ki tawaqqa ki gayi hai.
Maali Saal 2024 mein, munafa aur dividend ki wapsi ki raqam kul $2.2 billion thi, jo pichlay saal ke muqablay mein saat guna zyada hai. Yeh numayan izafa ghair mulki investors par wajib ul ada tamam munafa aur dividend ki adaigiyon ke tasfiyah se mansoob hai.
